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原文：
Shock waves from the 1997 collapse of Asian economies sideswiped world growth and depressed prices. Now, a global recovery is beginning to reverse all of that. Europe is on track to grow 2% this year, with the expansion Butterfly Valves accelerating in 2000. Surprisingly positive data from Japan bolster the outlook for emerging Asia. And Latin America is set to bounce back from recession. For the U.S., the news is good and bad. Exports and the manufacturing sector are rebounding, but the global upturn means that red-hot U.S. demand no longer has a safety valve to vent price pressures. Without that buffer, next year's inflation picture could be clouded by rising commodity prices, costlier imports, and production bottlenecks as well as extremely tight labor markets. The danger: All this could heighten the pressure on the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates even further. Based on the latest trade figures for July, inflation-adjusted exports of goods are up 14% from a year ago. Last year at this time, exports were in their steepest decline since the early 1980s. Moreover, the yearly pace of Safety Valves shipments to Pacific Rim countries, including Japan, has swung sharply, from -20% to 6%. The government does not adjust foreign-country data for inflation, but the price-adjusted pace is most likely greater, since export prices are still declining. THE IMPROVING OUTLOOK FOR EXPORTS will help slow the deterioration in the U.S. trade deficit, but any turnaround in the balance of payments is still a long way off (charts). That's because imports, fueled by eager and able U.S. buyers, are still growing far faster than exports. In fact, given that the value of imported goods and services is more than 30% greater than that of exports, exports would have grow about a third faster than imports just to stop the trade deficit from widening further--let alone shrink it. As a result, the U.S. is now in an unsustainable international financial position that will only get worse over the coming year. The broader current-account deficit, which includes not only trade in goods and services but also payouts of other financial obligations, is headed to 4% of gross domestic Needle & Gauge Valves product by the end of this year. At some point, when the financial markets deem this burden to be too high, changing investor sentiment will hurt the dollar, interest rates, and prices of U.S. financial assets. The dollar's recent weakness, especially vis-a-vis the yen, could be the first evidence of this adjustment.
原文来自：http://www.businessweek.com/archives/1999/b3649073.arc.htm

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译文：中美安全阀门
全球风正在转变 - 也是如此，在来年经济前景的重要组成部分。从1997年亚洲经济崩溃冲击波挤出市场世界经济增长和抑制价格。现在，全球经济复苏正在开始扭转这一切。欧洲有望增长2％，今年与2000年的加速膨胀。来自日本的利好经济数据令人吃惊的加强，新兴亚洲的前景。和拉丁美洲设置为从衰退的谷底反弹。对美国来说，是个好消息和坏。出口和制造业的反弹，但全球经济回升意味着，火热的美国需求不再有安全阀泄价格压力。没有这种缓冲，明年的通货膨胀情况，可能掩盖了商品价格上涨，昂贵的进口和生产的瓶颈，以及劳动力市场非常紧张。危险：所有这可能加剧了对美国联邦储备委员会施加压力，提高利率进一步发展。根据七月份最新的贸易数字，通货膨胀率调整的商品出口增长了14％，较上年同期。在去年这个时候，出口在其陡峭八十年代初以来下降。此外，在太平洋沿岸国家，包括日本的出口每年的步伐，随即大幅下跌至-20％，至6％。政府不调整外国国家的通胀数据，但价格调整的步伐是最有可能更大，因为出口价格仍在下降。对出口前景改善将有助于减缓美国贸易赤字恶化，但任何在国际收支好转仍是一个关闭（图）很长的路。这是因为进口的渴望和美国买家能够推动，仍在增长远远快于出口。事实上，由于进口货物和服务价值超过30％，比出口大，出口将增长约比进口的三分之一更快才能阻止进一步扩大的贸易赤字 - 更不用说其压缩。因此，美国现在是不可持续的国际金融地位，将只能获得在未来一年不如一年。更广泛的经常项目赤字，不仅包括货物贸易和服务，而且对其他财政义务的支出，是为首的4％的国内生产总值在今年年底。在某些时候，当金融市场认为这种负担太高，改变投资者的情绪将损及美元，利率和美国金融资产价格。美元近期的疲软，特别是相一相对于日元，可能是这种调整的第一个证据。

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